Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency

We consider the impact of breaking news on market prices. We measure activity on the micro-blogging platform Twitter surrounding a unique, newsworthy and identifiable event and investigate subsequent movements of betting prices on the prominent betting exchange, Bet- fair. The event we use is the Bigotgate scandal, which occurred during the 2010 UK General Election campaign. We use recent developments in time series econometric methods to identify and quantify movements in both Twitter activity and Betfair prices, and compare the timings of the two. We find that the response of market prices appears somewhat sluggish and is indicative of market inefficiency, as Betfair prices adjust with a delay, and there is evidence for post-news drift. This slow movement may be explained by the need for corroborating evidence via more traditional forms of media. Once important Tweeters begin to Tweet, including importantly breaking news Twitter feeds from traditional media sources, prices begin to move

Polls to probabilities: comparing prediction markets and opinion polls

Forecasting election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: outcomes can have significant economic impacts, for example on stock prices. As such, it is economically important, as well as of academic interest, to determine the forecasting methods that have historically performed best. However, forecasts are often incompatible, as some are in terms of vote shares, and others are probabilistic outcome forecasts. In this paper we set out an empirical method for transforming opinion poll vote shares into probabilistic forecasts, and then evaluate the performance of prediction markets and opinion polls. We compare along two dimensions: bias and precision. We find that converted opinion polls perform well in terms of bias, and prediction markets on precision

Causal effects of an absent crowd on performances and refereeing decisions during Covid-19

The Covid-19 pandemic has induced worldwide natural experiments on the effects of crowds. We exploit one of these experiments that took place over several countries in almost identical settings: professional football matches played behind closed doors within the 2019/20 league seasons. We find large and statistically significant effects on the number of yellow cards issued by referees. Without a crowd, fewer cards were awarded to the away teams, reducing home advantage. These results have implications for the influence of social pressure and crowds on the neutrality of decisions

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

The genome of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

We report the sequence and analysis of the 814-megabase genome of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, a model for developmental and systems biology. The sequencing strategy combined whole-genome shotgun and bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) sequences. This use of BAC clones, aided by a pooling strategy, overcame difficulties associated with high heterozygosity of the genome. The genome encodes about 23,300 genes, including many previously thought to be vertebrate innovations or known only outside the deuterostomes. This echinoderm genome provides an evolutionary outgroup for the chordates and yields insights into the evolution of deuterostomes

“A Hideous Torture on Himself”: Madness and Self-Mutilation in Victorian Literature

This paper suggests that late nineteenth-century definitions of self-mutilation, a new category of psychiatric symptomatology, were heavily influenced by the use of selfinjury as a rhetorical device in the novel, for the literary text held a high status in Victorian psychology. In exploring Dimmesdale’s “self-mutilation” in The Scarlet Letter in conjunction with psychiatric case histories, the paper indicates a number of common techniques and themes in literary and psychiatric texts. As well as illuminating key elements of nineteenth-century conceptions of the self, and the relation of mind and body through ideas of madness, this exploration also serves to highlight the social commentary implicit in many Victorian medical texts. Late nineteenth-century England, like mid-century New England, required the individual to help himself and, simultaneously, others; personal charity and individual philanthropy were encouraged, while state intervention was often presented as dubious. In both novel and psychiatric text, self-mutilation is thus presented as the ultimate act of selfish preoccupation, particularly in cases on the “borderlands” of insanity

Consensus guidelines for the use and interpretation of angiogenesis assays

The formation of new blood vessels, or angiogenesis, is a complex process that plays important roles in growth and development, tissue and organ regeneration, as well as numerous pathological conditions. Angiogenesis undergoes multiple discrete steps that can be individually evaluated and quantified by a large number of bioassays. These independent assessments hold advantages but also have limitations. This article describes in vivo, ex vivo, and in vitro bioassays that are available for the evaluation of angiogenesis and highlights critical aspects that are relevant for their execution and proper interpretation. As such, this collaborative work is the first edition of consensus guidelines on angiogenesis bioassays to serve for current and future reference

Australian experience with frozen blood products on military operations

Historically, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) has sourced all its blood supplies from the Australian Red Cross Blood Service. Recent ADF operations in the Middle East have highlighted a need to rely on other nations' blood supply systems. In 2008, the ADF embedded a surgical and intensive care team into the Netherlands-led forward health facility at the Uruzgan Medical Centre at Tarin Kowt in Afghanistan. To date, three teams have provided 2-month rotations as part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. The Netherlands armed forces use a sophisticated system for supply of liquid and frozen blood products (frozen red cells, plasma and platelets). We review Australian experience with the Dutch system of supplying blood products for major trauma resuscitation in Afghanistan.Neuhaus Susan J., Wishaw Ken and Lelkens Charleshttp://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2244618